Analyzing the European Intraday Market: Statistical Insights and Strategies for Continuous Trading in Renewable Energy Systems

Abstract

The global focus on climate change has prompted policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions
and increasing the integration of renewable resources into the energy system. In response, the elec-
trical energy market has undergone significant changes, including the adoption of a new form of
intraday market characterized by continuous trading across European countries. This continuous
trading model enables market agents to exchange energy in proximity to the delivery time, miti-
gating the challenges associated with renewable energy forecasting. Consequently, the utilization
of continuous trading has experienced substantial growth.Leveraging the first-come first-served
rule of the market, agents can employ diverse strategies to enhance their revenue generation while
maintaining a balanced final position.This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the
intraday market, investigating the key characteristics and behaviors exhibited by various market
players engaged in continuous trading. The study employs a range of statistical analyses, includ-
ing density analysis of submission patterns over time, regression analysis, time-series analysis, and
correlation analysis to examine the relationship between the prices of submitted orders and the
trend price in relation to the day-ahead market. The findings from these analyses are thoroughly
explored and discussed.Additionally, the research proposes a novel strategy that optimizes ex-
pected revenues by considering the probability of achieving a successful match. This strategy aims
to assist market participants in maximizing their profits while ensuring a reasonable likelihood
of finding a suitable trading partner.Overall, this work contributes to a comprehensive under-
standing of the European intraday market, with a particular focus on continuous trading.The
statistical analyses provide valuable insights into the market’s characteristics and the strategies
adopted by market players. The findings have practical implications for market participants and
policymakers, aiding in the development of more informed decision-making processes and more
efficient trading practices within the context of the evolving energy landscape